Betting the Run Line in Major League Baseball

Most novice baseball bettors don’t know how a run line works or how it can be used for potential profit while betting on baseball.  However, understanding the run line in baseball is very quite simple.  The money line favorite is installed as -1.5 runs and a reduced price from the straight money line bet.  The reduction can range anywhere from 50-90 cents depending on the match-up.  For a favorite to win against the money line they simply have to win by 2 runs or more.  Underdogs are given 1.5 runs while their money line price drops in value in the 50-90 cent range.  For an underdog to win, they must win the game outright or lose by 1 run.

Now that we have established just how the run line works in baseball, I’d like to take some time to show you how I take advantage of it.  As a handicapper, I personally only use the run line for betting on favorites.  Most of the time, I reduce the juice on a favorite that I like quite a bit to eliminate having to risk a lot of money and not get much back in return.  Like I said, the run line drastically reduces the price of a favorite but remember when betting on the favorite, they have to win by two runs.

So what do I look for before betting a run line? First of all, I look for an absolute mismatch in the starting pitchers of the two clubs playing.  I like to have a two run differential in ERA’s.  I also always like to have the better bullpen on my side before laying the 1.5 runs because big leads can disappear due to a shaky bullpen.  Thus, I like to have a significant advantage in pitching all across the board.  The better starting pitcher and the better bullpen will keep precious runs off the board and keep me from sweating the fact that my team has to win by 2 runs or more.
Next, I like my money on teams that have very good offenses who can put up runs in bunches.  Betting a run line on a team who doesn’t swing the bats very well can cost you as they may be susceptible to not being able to put up enough offense for me to win my wager.  I like teams who can score especially against an inferior starting pitcher.  Another key statistic that is absolutely crucial that can tell you a lot about a team’s run line perspectives is their run line record.  I want my money on teams that consistently beat the run line.

A good run line record is a great indicator of a team who wins games by 2 or more when favored, and who loses by less then one or wins outright as underdogs.  After taking all of this into consideration, you can see why run line betting can be attractive in order to reduce the price of a heavy favored who should dominate their opponent.