2009 NFL Prop Bet tip says to take atleast 1 team to lose 13 games

Jeff Haney who writes for the Las Vegas Sun provides us with another great NFL betting tip as the season is quickly approaching. Jeff is one of the nations top sports betting writers, providing great betting information and analysis to his readers. One other aspect that makes his information  so great, it is free!

In the NFL’s 2003 regular season, four teams lost 12 games: the Chargers, Raiders, Giants and Cardinals.

No team had more than 12 regular-season losses.

It was a noteworthy — and quirky — result because it was the only time in the past 21 seasons that no NFL team lost 13 or more games.

That arcane piece of football trivia has suddenly become relevant because of a betting proposition recently posted in Las Vegas.

The prop, available at all Lucky’s sports books, asks whether any NFL team will lose 13 or more games in the coming regular season.

The “yes” side of the prop opened at odds of minus 200 (risk $2 to net $1), with the “no” side listed at plus 175 (risk $1 to net $1.75). As always, odds are subject to change.

At those prices, the “yes” option would be a good bet if you believe there’s greater than a 67 percent chance of at least one team losing at least 13 games.

Bettors who opt for a decidedly nonscientific approach can make a pretty good case for the “yes” side, albeit one based on anecdotal evidence. Not only would a “yes” ticket on this prop have cashed in 20 of the past 21 years, but in 15 of those seasons two or more teams lost as many as 13 games — an indication the dubious “feat” is not so rare.

Last season, for example, the Lions lost 16 games and the Rams and the Chiefs each lost 14. Oddsmakers and the betting market projected those three to be losing teams, but not quite that bad. The

over/under regular-season victory total for the Lions was 6 1/2 (minus 130 on the over) in Las Vegas before the season. It was 6 1/2 (minus 125 on the over) for the Rams and 5 1/2 (minus 160 on the over) for the Chiefs.

The fact the three teams collapsed during the regular season does not necessarily mean those betting lines were “wrong” or “bad.” In fact, if they generated roughly the same amount of action on either side, then they were great lines. It’s possible that an element of randomness inherent in the NFL dictates that things will go haywire for a few teams each season — and nobody knows for sure which teams until it happens.

A similar prop at all Lucky’s properties asks whether any NFL team will win 13 or more games this season. The line opened at minus 300 on the “yes” and plus 240 on the “no.” The last time no team managed to win 13 games was 2002, when the Eagles, Packers and Buccaneers each won 12.

By Jeff Haney
LAS VEGAS SUN
Fri, Jun 5, 2009